The latest country and sector risk barometer highlights Switzerland’s resilience and stability within the global economic landscape. In the 2024 report, our barometer has upgraded the ratings of four countries and downgraded one. While economic growth in the eurozone is expected to reach 1.3% in 2025, Switzerland is projected to see a higher rate of 1.8%, reflecting a strong economic foundation that sets it apart from its European counterparts.
Switzerland maintains top credit rating
The global credit insurer has reaffirmed Switzerland’s top A1 rating in its recent barometer. Switzerland remains among the highest-rated countries globally, sharing this distinction with Denmark and Norway, and stands out as the only country without a "very high" risk in any sector. Since 1995, we have supported companies in Switzerland in their international growth, helping them navigate economic risks. This year’s barometer reinforces Switzerland’s economic stability and resilient financial management practices.
Economic growth driven by low inflation and fiscal discipline
Following an economic growth rate of 1.5% in 2024, Switzerland is forecasted to achieve a 1.8% increase in 2025. This robust performance is primarily attributed to two key factors: lower inflation rates than in the rest of Europe and prudent public financial management. These elements enable Switzerland to maintain growth and fiscal stability, differentiating it from many other European countries facing fiscal pressures and higher inflation.
Global economic overview: slower growth but soft landing continues
The barometer analyzed 162 countries and 13 economic sectors, adjusting risk ratings in only five cases. Upgrades were issued for Albania, Cyprus, Rwanda, and Costa Rica, while Israel’s rating was downgraded. Globally, the report notes that economic growth is stabilizing, with predictions of a growth rate of 2.6% for 2025. However, growth remains below its potential in many regions, reflecting an uneven recovery pace.
Despite falling inflation rates, which have eased monetary policy and led to lower interest rates, our analysts foresee a gradual shift towards fiscal consolidation. In this context, Europe’s economic contribution appears more vulnerable than that of the U.S. or China, particularly due to challenges within the eurozone.
Eurozone struggles with industrial decline and austerity measures
While the eurozone began 2024 on a promising note, the region’s industrial sector has since weakened, with Germany—the region’s largest economy—facing particularly challenging conditions. The barometer reports no signs of recovery in Europe’s construction sector, and the service sector, previously bolstered by tourism in southern Europe, is now showing signs of decline. Additionally, high savings rates and political uncertainty are limiting private consumption, further impacting growth.
Excessive public debt levels in seven EU countries led the European Union to initiate an excessive deficit procedure in July 2024 for France, Italy, Belgium, Malta, Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia. Economist Christiane von Berg explains, “The countries concerned have been obliged to implement tough austerity measures, which means that there will be no further impetus for growth.” As a result, eurozone growth is projected to remain at 1.3%.
U.S. resilience and China’s structural challenges
The U.S. economy has shown resilience, with steady domestic demand and a calming labor market since 2023. In contrast, China continues to grapple with structural issues and slowing growth. Measures have been introduced to address challenges such as declining property investment and weak demand, though their long-term impact remains uncertain.
Rising global fragility index reflects increasing socio-political risks
A concerning trend in the barometer is the steady increase in the Global Fragility Index, which measures socio-political vulnerabilities worldwide. The index has risen by 1.6 points, reaching 54.6% during the reporting period. This increase highlights a growing erosion of the rule of law and civil liberties in several regions, fostering an environment ripe for political and social unrest. Since 2014, the index has shown a continuous decline in stability, signaling persistent challenges on a global scale.
Conclusion: Switzerland’s economic fortitude in a complex world
In summary, Switzerland’s strong economic growth, low inflation, and stable fiscal policies stand out in a European context marked by industrial decline and fiscal austerity. While global economic recovery continues at a slower pace, Switzerland’s resilience underscores its unique position as a stable and prosperous economy in an otherwise uncertain landscape.
