After the snap legislative elections initiated by President Emmanuel Macron on June 9th and held on July 7th, no party managed to secure an absolute majority in the National Assembly (289 seats), leading to a period of uncertainty and instability in France’s governance.
Political forces rebalanced compared to 2022 results
The lower chamber of the French Parliament is now divided among four groups:
- The left (Nouveau Front Populaire - NFP) with 178 seats
- The centrist pro-Macron coalition (Ensemble) with 159 seats
- The radical right (Rassemblement National - RN and allies) with 143 seats
- The classic right (Les Républicains - LR) with 39 seats
No political families can win an absolute majority
While the left holds the most seats, a coalition between pro-Macron parties (Renaissance, Modem, Horizons) and the right could balance the power.
La France Insoumise (LFI), the most left-leaning faction, has 74 members, the Socialist Party (center-left) 59, the Ecologists 28, and the Communists 9. On July 8th, they announced plans to propose a single candidate for Prime Minister to the President this week.
The radical right made substantial gains, increasing their seats from 89 in 2022 to 143. In terms of votes, the National Rally and its allies are now the leading political force, garnering over 10 million votes in the second round.
Uncertainty and instability: The two main risks
Uncertainty about the future Government
A few days after the elections, the political future of the French government remains unclear. The most likely scenario is the President appointing a candidate proposed by the left-wing coalition, either a political leader or a civil society figure.
Instability of the future Government
Although the government does not need Assembly approval, it can be censured at any time. A government supported by only a third of the deputies is at risk of frequent censures, leading to political instability in the coming weeks and months.
Forming a broad coalition, including the moderate left and part of the pro-Macron MPs, could mitigate this risk. However, initial reactions from political leaders, ideological differences, and the electoral system complicate such a coalition.
A period of high instability might prompt political leaders to consider future coalitions to avoid a major regime crisis with repeated censures, especially since dissolving parliament is not possible before July 2025.
Policy uncertainty
The future government will manage public administration with full statutory powers. For instance, budgetary decrees can be issued by the Minister of Finance without parliamentary approval. However, it will need to collaborate with the President in certain areas (foreign relations or defense) and contend with a parliament that could easily disrupt its plans.
Prime Minister Attal's short-term reprieve
Current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal has announced his resignation but will stay on until a successor is appointed. He retains full capacity, including regulatory powers, but his actions will be limited by the new Assembly. His government could face a vote of no confidence from July 20th, forcing him to resign.
Variable coalitions may form when examining legislation, even on a project-by-project basis. A future left-wing government will likely be unable to implement its full program. This might explain the financial markets' moderate reaction after the second round. However, the hung parliament will disrupt the period of relative economic continuity since Emmanuel Macron's election in 2017.
