The globalisation of world trade is entering a new phase. The process is slow and presents major risks, especially for Europe. Experts in finance, industry and logistics shared their analyses of this major economic transformation during our Country Risk Conference on 4 February.
A new era of globalisation is forcing Europe to adapt. During our February conference, industry specialists highlighted complex economic shifts. In previous events, such as the 2022 Country Risk Conference in Zurich, we addressed key topics like global trade pressure and increasing competition. Today, these issues remain critical, fueled by conflicts in Ukraine and Israel and Donald Trump’s second U.S. presidency.
Economic fragmentation and China’s rising influence
At the conference, Agatha Kratz from Rhodium Group emphasized that economic disintegration is reshaping global trade. The USA and China now trade and invest less in each other. China is also reducing imports, aiming for greater self-sufficiency.
This shift increases China's role in global trade. The country is focusing more on Southeast Asia and the Global South. However, Europe’s economy is also growing more dependent on Chinese imports.
Over the last five years, the Europe has become more dependent on the Chinese economy.
Agatha Kratz, Partner, Rhodium Group
According to Kratz, Europe must prepare for a surge in Chinese goods by 2025.
Winners and losers in the new trade landscape
Kratz identified Mexico and Vietnam as key beneficiaries, acting as trade connectors. Established economies like the USA and Taiwan are also gaining from these changes.
Value chain shifts are reshaping the logistics industry. Ramon Fernandez, CFO of shipping giant CMA CGM, noted a record volume of shipped goods.
We've never transported so much freight.
Ramon Fernandez, Group Chief Financial Officer, CMA CGM
Chinese exports to Southeast Asia and Mexico have surged, with re-exports from these regions to the USA increasing. These changes demand greater flexibility from shipping firms.
Europe’s competitive challenges
Europe faces challenges beyond trade. Environmental regulations are tightening, affecting logistics and industrial sectors. Thierry de La Tour d’Artaise, CEO of SEB Group, warned that overregulation may stifle innovation. Meanwhile, Chinese manufacturers are advancing rapidly.
The financial sector also struggles with restrictions. Anne-Christine Champion from Société Générale pointed out that sanctions complicate financing. Unlike in the USA, where firms rely on bonds, European companies depend on banks, limiting flexibility and growth.
The need for European action
To stay competitive, Europe must address regulatory and financial barriers. Making capital more accessible and fostering innovation are key priorities. As globalisation enters a new phase, businesses must adapt quickly to navigate the risks and opportunities ahead.
To find out more about world trade, download our full study
Also watch the replay of the round table of the 29th Country Risk 2025 Symposium -> https://youtu.be/eJkZ5f-VhYw?si=L7X2YkAZv2f-53jj
