The year 2025 is shaping up to be full of economic uncertainties. Coface, a leader in credit risk management, provides a detailed analysis of global economic prospects, focusing on key geopolitical and economic risks as well as investment opportunities. Discover our forecasts for the United States, Europe, China, emerging markets, and Switzerland.
1. United States: geopolitical risks and economic growth in 2025
The United States continues to have a major influence on the global economy. In 2025, economic policy, particularly in international trade, is expected to take a new direction. The U.S. administration will continue its economic approach focused on tax cuts and deregulation. However, rising tariffs and trade tensions, especially with China, could escalate, affecting multiple sectors, from electronics to raw materials.
The U.S. economy may experience a slight slowdown, but uncertainty remains high. Fiscal policies, including tax cuts and migration restrictions, could fuel inflation and create economic tensions at a global level.
2. Europe: growth hindered by internal and external challenges
Europe faces a complex economic situation. While some countries, such as France, have shown resilience, others, like Germany and Italy, struggle with low growth rates. In 2025, the eurozone will continue to suffer from weak consumer confidence and structural challenges in key industries such as manufacturing and construction.
Economic forecasts project eurozone growth at 1.1% in 2025, significantly below U.S. performance. Diverging economic policies among eurozone countries, combined with the effects of U.S. trade policies, add another layer of uncertainty to Europe's economic outlook.
3. China: slowing economy and geopolitical challenges
China’s growth is expected to slow further in 2025. While the country met its 5% growth target in 2024, structural challenges such as industrial overcapacity limit short-term economic prospects. Additionally, the real estate sector, once a key driver of growth, faces a prolonged crisis, with developers struggling financially.
The Chinese government may announce measures to support consumption and infrastructure investment to boost the economy, but these efforts may not be enough to reverse the downward trend. Trade tensions with the United States, particularly concerning tariffs, also pose a major risk for China in 2025.
4. Emerging markets: a delicate balance between debt and geopolitical instability
Emerging markets, particularly in Africa and Asia, face increasing risks due to economic and geopolitical instability. A stronger U.S. dollar, combined with restrictive monetary policies, has led to capital outflows and currency devaluations in several emerging economies, notably Brazil and South Africa.
Countries with high external debt or significant trade deficits are particularly vulnerable. The risk of payment defaults is rising, and these economies could see their financial stability threatened in 2025 if global economic conditions deteriorate further.
5. Switzerland: relative stability in an uncertain global environment
Switzerland continues to stand out for its economic stability. In 2025, the country is expected to achieve modest growth of 1.7%, outperforming its European neighbors. With low inflation—expected to reach just 0.5% in 2025—and an accommodative monetary policy from the Swiss National Bank, consumption and investments remain supported.
However, the Swiss economy could be affected by weak external demand, particularly from the European Union and China. Swiss foreign trade remains uncertain, although key sectors such as pharmaceuticals and luxury goods remain relatively resilient amid global economic turbulence.
Key risks and opportunities in 2025
- United States: A slight but uncertain slowdown, with geopolitical risks linked to trade and fiscal policies.
- Europe: Limited growth due to internal challenges, with heightened risk from global trade tensions.
- China: Likely economic slowdown, exacerbated by trade tensions and insufficient domestic demand.
- Emerging Markets: Increased vulnerability to debt crises and currency fluctuations, especially in export-dependent countries.
- Switzerland: Relative stability thanks to low inflation and an accommodative monetary policy, but export-related risks remain.
