The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is one of the world’s most strategic — and most sensitive — maritime passages. Located between the Arabian Peninsula to the northeast (Yemen side) and the Horn of Africa to the southwest (notably Djibouti and Eritrea), it forms a narrow waterway linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and, by extension, to the Indian Ocean. Every incident in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait can impact global markets, disrupt supply chains in key sectors, raise logistics costs, and trigger a chain of geopolitical reactions.
About the Bab el-Mandeb Strait
This strait plays a key role in global trade: it is the only direct maritime access to the Suez Canal, the main link between Europe and Asia. Each year, between 10% and 12% of international maritime trade passes through it, representing thousands of ships carrying essential goods. At its narrowest point, the strait is only 30 kilometers wide, making navigation particularly delicate—especially during times of tension or conflict.
Among the cargoes using this route are:
- Crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), originating from the Persian Gulf and destined for Europe or the United States. Some supertankers carry millions of barrels per crossing.
- Manufactured goods such as electronics, vehicles, and textiles, often loaded in Asian ports like those of China, India, or Malaysia and bound for Europe.
- Food and agricultural products, including wheat, rice, sugar, and tea, traded between Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and the African continent.
- Strategic goods for global supply chains, such as industrial spare parts or technological components.
Sources of risk in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is not just a maritime corridor — it is a zone where political instability, armed threats, criminal activity, and geostrategic tensions converge. This explosive mix makes it one of the most dangerous areas for global maritime transport.
The risks affecting this route are not theoretical — they are recurring, well-documented, and at times dramatic. They target both commercial vessels and their crews, and have a direct impact on the entire supply chain.
Three main categories of threats make this region especially vulnerable.
1. Armed conflicts in the region
The main source of danger stems from the civil war that has torn Yemen apart since 2014. The Houthis, supported by Iran, are fighting against a coalition led by Saudi Arabia. This war has crossed land borders and reached the sea.
These armed groups use drones, mines, and missiles to target commercial vessels, whether they are Western or affiliated with coalition countries. The sea has thus become an extension of the battlefield.
Example: In January 2024, an American cargo ship was hit by a ballistic missile launched by the Houthis. The attack caused a major fire on board, illustrating the vulnerability of ships in this area.
2. Piracy and maritime crime
The strait is also bordered by areas known for maritime piracy, particularly Somalia. While attacks have decreased since their peak in the 2010s, armed groups remain active. This criminal activity puts crews at risk of kidnappings, violent robberies, and sometimes even improvised naval battles.
Example: In March 2024, an Iranian fishing vessel was captured off the coast of Somalia, a stark reminder that threats are never far away.
3. Major geopolitical stakes
Bab el-Mandeb is a globally coveted strategic point. French, American, Chinese, and Emirati military bases are all concentrated in the area around Djibouti.
The region has become a stage for rivalries between global powers, where commercial vessels may become collateral damage.
Example: Israeli ships are regularly targeted in the Red Sea by Houthi missiles, in response to ongoing regional tensions in the Middle East.
Concrete impacts of the risks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait
The threats in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are not just strategic hypotheticals — they translate daily into delays, extra costs, financial losses, and human tragedies. Shipping companies, importers, insurers, and crews are directly affected.
1. Severe consequences for goods
Each disruption in the area triggers a domino effect throughout the entire supply chain. Ships sometimes have to reroute around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10 to 15 days of travel.
- Significant delays: Delivery times skyrocket, especially for trade between Asia and Europe.
- Rising costs: “War zone” insurance premiums, extra fuel for longer routes, and onboard security measures all increase logistical expenses.
- Lost goods: Perishable products (such as fruit, medicines, or vaccines) may become unsellable due to extended delays.
Example: In 2023, approximately 8.6 million barrels per day of crude oil, condensates, and refined petroleum products flowed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). However, during the first eight months of 2024, this volume decreased by over 50 %, averaging 4.0 million barrels per day. This decline is primarily attributed to attacks by Houthi militias in Yemen, prompting many vessels to avoid this strategic route and opt for longer journeys around the Cape of Good Hope.
2. A human burden for crews
Beyond material losses, human lives are also at risk.
- Crews navigating through the area are exposed to drone attacks, missile strikes, and even kidnapping attempts.
- The constant stress of sailing through a military “hotspot” leads to psychological fatigue, and some shipping companies are beginning to refuse assignments that pass through Bab el-Mandeb.
These tensions directly affect the availability of vessels and qualified personnel, further worsening global logistical disruptions.
3. A measurable level of risk
The danger in this area is officially recognized by major maritime insurers, who have classified it as a “high-risk zone.” This means:
- The likelihood of an incident exceeds 1% per crossing without military escort.
- This rate can rise significantly during periods of active conflict, as has been the case since late 2023 with the intensification of attacks linked to the war in Yemen and broader regional tensions.
Under such conditions, sailing without protection in this region is quite literally playing with fire.
What alternatives to the risks of Bab el-Mandeb?
Given the chronic instability of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, maritime transport operators have no choice but to rethink their routes — sometimes urgently. Several solutions make it possible to bypass — or at least limit — exposure to this high-risk area.
These alternatives come with costs and constraints, but they help protect the integrity of goods, crews, and contracts in a tense international context.
1. The Detour via the Cape of Good Hope (South Africa)
This Detour appears to be the simplest solution: avoiding the Red Sea entirely by sailing around Africa to the south.
- Expect an additional 12 to 15 days of sailing, significantly increasing delivery times.
- Fuel costs soar, especially for large container ships.
- This route is often used as an emergency measure, particularly during Suez Canal closures (such as in 2021 with the Ever Given) or times of heightened security tension.
While this option is safe, it seriously impacts the competitiveness of companies operating under strict deadlines.
2. Multimodal transport via the Emirates or Israel
A more creative alternative: breaking up the sea journey into several segments and completing it overland.
- Ships unload in Jeddah (Saudi Arabia) or Eilat (Israel).
- Goods are then transported by rail or truck to Mediterranean ports for re-shipment.
This option relies on:
- Strong logistics partnerships between port authorities, customs, and overland transport companies.
- A certain level of political stability in the transit countries.
This model is already used by some Israeli operators to bypass Suez or the Red Sea, particularly for trade flows toward Southern Europe.
3. Convoys escorted by military forces
As a last resort, some routes remain open thanks to military security.
- Merchant vessels sail in convoys accompanied by warships, often from the U.S. or Europe.
- These escorts significantly reduce the risk of attacks, particularly from drones or missiles.
However:
- Access to these convoys is limited, often restricted to strategic or government-affiliated operators.
- Coordination with armed forces requires precise planning and can incur substantial additional costs.
Recommendations for a shipment through Bab el-Mandeb
Sailing through Bab el-Mandeb today is like navigating a high-risk zone: the dangers are real, but proper preparation can greatly reduce their impact.
To ensure the safety of goods, crews, and delivery timelines, it is essential to adopt a proactive and strategic approach.
1. Upfront risk assessment
The first step in securing any maritime transaction is a thorough risk assessment prior to shipment. This includes continuous monitoring of alerts from organizations like the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and consulting reports from specialized insurers.
These insights help accurately evaluate the geopolitical and security situation in the region and adjust logistics decisions accordingly.
2. Choose an experienced shipping line
Choosing the right shipping company is crucial. It is essential to select a maritime operator with solid experience in the region, validated routes, and crews trained to handle the specific risks of Bab el-Mandeb.
These companies are also better equipped to respond to potential threats, with onboard security systems such as radar monitoring and anti-piracy protocols.
3. Strengthen the logistics contract
A well-drafted contract is a cornerstone of risk management. It should include a “war risk” cargo insurance clause to cover goods in case of conflict-related incidents.
Additionally, it’s recommended to include a force majeure clause that allows for contractual adjustments in case of blockages, diversions, or other unpredictable disruptions, ensuring flexibility and protection for all parties involved.
4. Real-time vessel tracking
Real-time tracking of the vessel’s route is another key element in securing shipments. Services like MarineTraffic, Windward, or Spire allow for constant monitoring of the ship’s trajectory, with instant alerts if it strays off course or nears a danger zone.
These tools also help share information with clients and partners, improving real-time communication.
5. Have a backup plan ready within 24 hours
Finally, it is essential to have a contingency plan ready in case of major issues. Even with all precautions, an alternative logistics route must be in place. This could involve a detour via the Cape of Good Hope or land transit for quick rerouting.
Most importantly, the plan must be deployable within 24 hours and well-coordinated with logistics partners.
