The year 2025 begins under the banner of uncertainty. With political upheavals, geopolitical tensions, and persistent economic challenges, businesses must navigate an increasingly unpredictable environment. Xavier Durand, CEO of Coface, provides a clear-eyed assessment of the situation and analyzes the key trends that will shape the year ahead.
A political landscape in turmoil
2024 was a pivotal election year, with more than half of the world's population heading to the polls. While many outcomes were in line with expectations, surprises abounded:
- In India, Narendra Modi secured a re-election but with a weaker mandate.
- In France, Emmanuel Macron unexpectedly dissolved the National Assembly.
- In the United States, Donald Trump won a decisive victory.
- In Germany, the ruling coalition collapsed, triggering early federal elections.
These events reflect rising political instability, which will have a direct impact on economic and trade policies worldwide.
A slowing yet uneven global economy
While some major economic risks did not materialize in 2024, the outlook remains fragile. The world’s largest economies are following divergent paths:
- The U.S. remains strong but is starting to slow down.
- China continues to struggle with deep-seated structural challenges.
- Europe, with the exception of southern countries, is experiencing prolonged stagnation.
However, there is one significant positive development: inflation appears to be under control, allowing central banks to ease monetary policies and provide relief to highly leveraged businesses.
Businesses under pressure
Despite this monetary easing, corporate insolvencies are on the rise, particularly in Europe, where disinflation has led to a sharp decline in profit margins. With weaker consumer spending and a wave of layoffs, the resilience of businesses could soon be a thing of the past.
Governments remain hopeful for an economic rebound in 2025, but these expectations may be overly optimistic. Household consumption remains uncertain, and corporate investment is far from guaranteed. Under these conditions, another difficult year for Europe and a global slowdown cannot be ruled out.
Anticipating risks to stay ahead
In this uncertain climate, companies must leverage risk analysis tools to navigate a rapidly changing world. This is precisely the purpose of the Country & Sector Risks Guide 2025, which offers:
- A geographic perspective, with in-depth analyses of 160 countries.
- A sector-based approach, assessing risks across 13 key industries.
As 2025 shapes up to be a turning point, this guide serves as an essential resource for decision-makers, helping them anticipate economic trends and secure their business strategies.
> Download the Country & Sector Risks Handbook 2025 now to make informed decisions in uncertain times.
